Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur — Premier League preview & stats

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Premier League Premier League·

Aston Villa

Tottenham Hotspur

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

51%

Draw

21%

Away Win

28%

Both teams score48.4%

Over 2.5 goals53.0%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Aston Villa demonstrated a significantly stronger home performance with a high win rate, while Tottenham Hotspur’s away form was less consistent. Villa’s offensive potential at home was notably higher, reflected in their superior xG compared to Spurs’ away matches. This created a context highlighting Villa’s attacking play and indicated a competitive encounter.

Goals

The match featured contributions from both sides, supported by the combined xG of nearly three per game in their direct comparison. Both teams had tendencies toward scoring, and the defensive setups did not strongly favor clean sheets, indicating an open game with goals from each team.

Corners

The game involved a relatively high number of corners, consistent with the teams’ season averages. Aston Villa averaged nearly six corners per home game, while Tottenham averaged just under five away. This contributed to a total corner count around ten per match, reflecting active attacking play and set-piece opportunities.

Clean Sheets

Neither team showed a clear advantage in maintaining clean sheets, with odds and statistics indicating that both defenses were vulnerable. This aligned with the observed openness of the match and the presence of goals from both sides, making shutouts uncommon.

Aston Villa showed strong home form against Tottenham Hotspur, with both teams contributing to an open match.

Head to head — 35 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

31%

11%

57%

Based on 35 matches

avg goals/game3.00

Last 5 meetings

10 Jan 2026awayAston Villa2-1Tottenham Hotspur

19 Oct 2025awayAston Villa2-1Tottenham Hotspur

16 May 2025homeAston Villa2-0Tottenham Hotspur

9 Feb 2025homeAston Villa2-1Tottenham Hotspur

3 Nov 2024awayAston Villa1-4Tottenham Hotspur

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Aston Villa

Coming into this game, Aston Villa has picked up 7 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Aston Villa has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Tottenham Hotspur's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Aston Villa from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 5 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 4 home matches this season.

In the last 5 matches for Aston Villa, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 18 matches (53% of all matches) involving Aston Villa has seen BTTS landing.

Tottenham Hotspur

Coming into this game, Tottenham Hotspur has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Tottenham Hotspur has scored 4 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Tottenham Hotspur has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Tottenham Hotspur recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Tottenham Hotspur has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 20/34 games for Tottenham Hotspur this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.