Manchester United vs Liverpool — Premier League preview & stats

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Premier League Premier League·

Manchester United

Liverpool

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

55%

Draw

19%

Away Win

26%

Both teams score62.6%

Over 2.5 goals67.0%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Manchester United demonstrated a strong home performance with a 65% win rate at Old Trafford, while Liverpool showed less consistency away with a lower win percentage. The teams' xG values indicated a match with multiple goal opportunities, with United averaging nearly two xG at home and Liverpool around one and a half away. Historically, their head-to-head matches averaged over three and a half goals, reflecting an open and attacking style of play.

Goals

Both teams had a notable trend of scoring in their matches, with about 65% of games seeing both sides find the net. The frequency of matches with over 2.5 goals was around 62%, indicating a generally offensive game, though extremely high-scoring games were less frequent. Early goals were less common, with only about 15% of matches seeing both teams score in the first half, while the second half accounted for nearly half of the BTTS occurrences.

Corners

The combined average corners per game for both teams was above eleven, indicating a match with many set-piece opportunities. Manchester United averaged just over five corners per game at home, while Liverpool averaged six away. Both teams had a similar chance of winning the corner count, with a slight nuance favoring Liverpool.

Clean Sheets

Clean sheets were relatively uncommon for both sides in this fixture, with low probabilities indicating that both teams tended to concede during the match. This aligned with the overall pattern of an open game with multiple goal-scoring chances for each side.

Manchester United hosted Liverpool at Old Trafford with strong home and away statistical backgrounds.

Head to head — 47 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

40%

23%

36%

Based on 47 matches

avg goals/game2.91

Last 5 meetings

19 Oct 2025awayManchester United2-1Liverpool

5 Jan 2025awayManchester United2-2Liverpool

1 Sept 2024homeManchester United0-3Liverpool

3 Aug 2024homeManchester United0-3Liverpool

7 Apr 2024homeManchester United2-2Liverpool

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Manchester United

Coming into this game, Manchester United has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Manchester United has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Liverpool's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Manchester United from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 11 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 2 home matches this season.

Manchester United has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Manchester United will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Liverpool, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1

In the last 5 matches for Manchester United, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 25 matches (74% of all matches) involving Manchester United has seen BTTS landing.

Showing 5 of 6 trends.

Liverpool

Coming into this game, Liverpool has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Liverpool has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Scoring is not an issue for Liverpool when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 6 games they have played on the road. Can Manchester United stop this run?

Liverpool has put together a good run of form and has now gone 3 games without defeat.

It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 7 games for Liverpool ending with 2 goals or more being scored.

Liverpool will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Manchester United, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1

Showing 5 of 7 trends.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.