Roma vs Genoa — Serie A preview & stats

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Serie A Serie A·

Roma

Genoa

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

59%

Draw

21%

Away Win

20%

Both teams score47.6%

Over 2.5 goals49.6%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Roma showed a clear home advantage with a higher xG, scoring 2.37 on average and conceding 1.36, maintaining a 50% home win rate. Genoa struggled away from home, losing all their away matches before this game. The combined xG before kickoff suggested a match with multiple goals, with around 3.75 expected goals. Historically, matches between these teams often featured more than 2.5 goals, occurring in about three-quarters of their encounters. Early goals were common, with over half a goal scored in the first half in 84% of their games.

Goals

The match reflected the offensive tendencies indicated by the xG data, with goals scored in both halves. Roma took the lead early, consistent with the high first-half scoring trend, and maintained pressure to convert their chances. Genoa managed to respond, keeping the game competitive and contributing to the total goal count.

Corners

The teams combined for a total close to their average of just over ten corners per game, with Roma generating the majority, consistent with their typical 6.67 corners per home match compared to Genoa's 3.5 away corners. This corner count aligned with the match's active tempo and attacking play.

Clean Sheets

Neither team kept a clean sheet, as both sides scored during the match, reflecting the offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities indicated by their season statistics.

Roma hosted Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A's seventh round of the 2026/27 season.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

RomavsGenoa

1.20PPG+17%1.40

20.0%Wins40.0%

1.60Goals/G+60%1.00

1.40Conceded↓ less is better+17%1.20

60.0%Both teams score60.0%

40.0%Over 2.5 goals40.0%

40.0%No goal conceded20.0%

6.7Corners / game+91%3.5

1.7Cards / game+50%2.5

Goals · 1st half

80.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals0.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half60.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half0.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Roma

LDDWD

Genoa

WLLWD

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Roma · at homevsGenoa · away

2.33PPG0.00

2.67Goals/G+434%0.50

1.00Conceded↓ less is better+50%1.50

67.0%Both teams score50.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals50.0%

33.0%No goal conceded0.0%

Based on 3 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

RomavsGenoa

2.62xG for+132%1.13

1.18xG against↓ less is better+13%1.04

Based on 3 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

2.62Roma

3.75Total

1.13Genoa

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 61% BTTS · 2.91 goals per game, i.e. 1.45 per team

High-scoring league

Romavs league avgGenoa

2.33+60%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.45↑ more is better0.83−43%

0.50−66%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.46↓ less is better1.83+26%

33.0%−27 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 60.5%67.0%+7 pts

5.17+9%CornersLeague avg 4.754.67−2%

2.17+28%CardsLeague avg 1.692.67+58%

Based on 20 teams for the league averages; 6 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Roma#3

Genoa#17

2.84Expected goals

75%Over 2.5 goals

59%Both teams score

10.2Corners

4.2Cards

Head to head — 35 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

66%

14%

20%

Based on 35 matches

avg goals/game3.11

Roma · at home

16-2-0

18 matches · 40-12 goals

Genoa · away

0-2-16

18 matches · 12-40 goals

Last 10 meetings

8 Mar 2026awayRoma1-2Genoa

29 Dec 2025homeRoma3-1Genoa

17 Jan 2025homeRoma3-1Genoa

15 Sept 2024awayRoma1-1Genoa

19 May 2024homeRoma1-0Genoa

28 Sept 2023awayRoma1-4Genoa

12 Jan 2023homeRoma1-0Genoa

5 Feb 2022homeRoma0-0Genoa

21 Nov 2021awayRoma2-0Genoa

7 Mar 2021homeRoma1-0Genoa

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Roma

Coming into this game, Roma has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Roma has scored 10 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Roma has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.

Momentum is really building for Roma as they have now gone 6 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.

Roma has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 3 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 4 occasions.

Roma is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Genoa, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 10 goals in those 5 games.

Showing 5 of 6 trends.

Genoa

Coming into this game, Genoa has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Genoa has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.

In the last 5 matches for Genoa, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (67% of all matches) involving Genoa has seen BTTS landing.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.