Como vs Roma — Serie A preview & stats

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Serie A Serie A·

Como

Roma

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

54%

Draw

21%

Away Win

25%

Both teams score54.8%

Over 2.5 goals53.2%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Como maintained a perfect home record with all wins, supported by a home xG of over two compared to goals conceded below one and a half. Roma's away record included less than half of matches won, with an away xG slightly above one and goals conceded close to one and a third. Como's ability to exploit transitions contrasted with Roma's defensive resilience on the road.

Goals

The combined xG for both teams approached five per game, indicating a match with multiple scoring opportunities. The data reflected a balanced chance of both teams scoring, with about half of their recent matches featuring goals at both ends. The goal expectation suggested at least two goals with potential for a third if the pace remained high.

Corners

The match typically featured a high number of corners, averaging over fifteen combined per game. Como contributed the majority of these, aligning with their home dominance and attacking style. Roma's average was notably lower, reflecting a more conservative approach away from home.

Clean Sheets

Como's defensive record at home showed they conceded fewer goals than their xG allowed, indicating effective defensive performances. Roma's away defense was slightly less efficient, conceding close to their xG. Historically, Como has recorded more clean sheets at home compared to Roma's away matches, suggesting a home advantage in defensive solidity.

Como demonstrated strong home performance while Roma showed moderate away results in Serie A match six.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

ComovsRoma

2.40PPG+9%2.20

80.0%Wins60.0%

2.40Goals/G+9%2.20

1.20Conceded↓ less is better+50%0.80

80.0%Both teams score60.0%

80.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

0.0%No goal conceded40.0%

11.0Corners / game+144%4.5

1.0Cards / game+50%1.5

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals100.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals40.0%

100.0%A goal in 1st half80.0%

40.0%Both teams score · 1st half0.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Como

LWWWW

Roma

DWDWW

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Como · at homevsRoma · away

3.00PPG+0%3.00

2.00Goals/G+50%3.00

1.00Conceded↓ less is better0.00

100.0%Both teams score0.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals50.0%

0.0%No goal conceded100.0%

Based on 1 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

ComovsRoma

2.99xG for+61%1.86

1.29xG against↓ less is better+42%0.91

Based on 1 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

2.99Como

4.85Total

1.86Roma

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 57% BTTS · 2.90 goals per game, i.e. 1.45 per team

Balanced league

Comovs league avgRoma

1.80+24%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.45↑ more is better2.80+93%

1.20−17%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.45↓ less is better0.60−59%

80.0%+23 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 56.7%40.0%−17 pts

8.00+71%CornersLeague avg 4.675.80+24%

0.80−51%CardsLeague avg 1.641.60−2%

Based on 20 teams for the league averages; 5 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Como#8

Roma#2

3.00Expected goals

75%Over 2.5 goals

50%Both teams score

15.5Corners

2.5Cards

Head to head — 4 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

50%

Based on 4 matches

avg goals/game2.25

Como · at home

2-0-0

2 matches · 4-1 goals

Roma · away

0-0-2

2 matches · 1-4 goals

Last 4 meetings

15 Mar 2026homeComo2-1Roma

15 Dec 2025awayComo0-1Roma

2 Mar 2025awayComo1-2Roma

15 Dec 2024homeComo2-0Roma

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Como

Coming into this game, Como has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Como has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Como will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Roma, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1

In the last 5 matches for Como, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (80% of all matches) involving Como has seen BTTS landing.

Roma

Coming into this game, Roma has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Roma has scored 14 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Roma has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.

Momentum is really building for Roma as they have now gone 5 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.

Roma has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 3 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 3 occasions.

Roma is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Como, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 14 goals in those 5 games.

Showing 5 of 6 trends.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.