NEC vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie preview & stats

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Eredivisie Eredivisie·

NEC

Fortuna Sittard

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

52%

Draw

20%

Away Win

28%

Both teams score68.5%

Over 2.5 goals68.6%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

NEC demonstrated a stronger home performance with a higher average xG compared to Fortuna Sittard's lower away xG, indicating NEC controlled possession and offensive transitions more effectively. Fortuna maintained a notable away win rate, reflecting their competitive road form. Both teams historically showed a high frequency of both teams scoring in their encounters.

Goals

The match featured multiple goals, consistent with the teams' tendencies for open play and goal-scoring opportunities. The total goals fell within a moderate range, aligning with previous matches where 3 to 4 goals were common. Both sides contributed to the scoreline, maintaining the trend of both teams finding the net.

Corners

The game produced a total corner count close to the season average for these teams, with NEC generating significantly more corners than Fortuna Sittard. This reflected NEC's greater attacking pressure and set-piece involvement at home, while Fortuna's lower corner count corresponded with their more restrained away approach.

Clean Sheets

Neither team kept a clean sheet, continuing the pattern of both teams scoring in their recent matches and highlighting defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

NEC and Fortuna Sittard met in an Eredivisie match noted for active attacking play and set-piece opportunities.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

NECvsFortuna Sittard

0.60PPG+233%2.00

0.0%Wins60.0%

0.60Goals/G+200%1.80

2.20Conceded↓ less is better+10%2.00

60.0%Both teams score80.0%

40.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

0.0%No goal conceded20.0%

5.3Corners / game+320%1.3

1.0Cards / game+150%2.5

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

20.0%Over 3.5 goals60.0%

100.0%A goal in 1st half80.0%

40.0%Both teams score · 1st half40.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

NEC

DDDLL

Fortuna Sittard

DWLWW

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

NEC · at homevsFortuna Sittard · away

0.50PPG+400%2.50

1.25Goals/G+80%2.25

2.00Conceded↓ less is better+33%1.50

100.0%Both teams score75.0%

75.0%Over 2.5 goals75.0%

0.0%No goal conceded25.0%

Based on 4 home matches / 4 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

NECvsFortuna Sittard

1.87xG for+56%1.20

1.32xG against↓ less is better+45%1.91

Based on 4 home matches / 4 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.87NEC

3.07Total

1.20Fortuna Sittard

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 70% BTTS · 3.79 goals per game, i.e. 1.90 per team

High-scoring league

NECvs league avgFortuna Sittard

1.63−14%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.90↑ more is better1.75−8%

1.75−8%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.90↓ less is better1.88−1%

88.0%+18 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 70.2%75.0%+5 pts

4.88−6%CornersLeague avg 5.182.50−52%

1.63+10%CardsLeague avg 1.481.63+10%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 8 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

NEC#11

Fortuna Sittard#7

3.50Expected goals

75%Over 2.5 goals

88%Both teams score

6.5Corners

3.5Cards

Head to head — 18 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

56%

22%

Based on 18 matches

avg goals/game3.83

NEC · at home

5-2-3

10 matches · 25-16 goals

Fortuna Sittard · away

3-2-5

10 matches · 16-25 goals

Last 10 meetings

28 Feb 2026homeNEC2-3Fortuna Sittard

31 Aug 2025awayNEC2-3Fortuna Sittard

19 Jan 2025homeNEC4-1Fortuna Sittard

31 Aug 2024awayNEC3-0Fortuna Sittard

2 Apr 2024awayNEC1-1Fortuna Sittard

15 Dec 2023homeNEC4-1Fortuna Sittard

28 May 2023awayNEC1-1Fortuna Sittard

19 Oct 2022homeNEC3-2Fortuna Sittard

10 Sept 2022homeNEC1-1Fortuna Sittard

15 May 2022homeNEC0-1Fortuna Sittard

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

NEC

Coming into this game, NEC has picked up 3 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. NEC has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.

NEC has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.

NEC has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Can NEC turn this around? They have not won in the last 5 games coming into this, with 3 draws and 2 defeats.

In the last 5 matches for NEC, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 7 matches (88% of all matches) involving NEC has seen BTTS landing.

Fortuna Sittard

Coming into this game, Fortuna Sittard has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Fortuna Sittard has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Fortuna Sittard has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 4 games.

Fortuna Sittard has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Fortuna Sittard will be looking to keep up the momentum today against NEC, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1

In the last 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 6 matches (75% of all matches) involving Fortuna Sittard has seen BTTS landing.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.