PSV vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie preview & stats

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Eredivisie Eredivisie·

PSV

Heerenveen

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

17%

Both teams score69.7%

Over 2.5 goals74.4%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

PSV demonstrated a strong home performance with a high home xG near three, while Heerenveen's away xG was close to two. Recent matches between these teams showed a high average total xG, indicating open and attacking games. Both teams scored in the majority of their encounters, reflecting offensive strengths on both sides.

Goals

The matches between PSV and Heerenveen consistently featured more than two and a half goals, with all recent games exceeding three and a half goals. Approximately one-third of these games had more than four and a half goals. Both teams scored in about 84% of their meetings, highlighting frequent goal contributions from each side.

Corners

The average number of corners in their matches was around fourteen per game, with PSV typically winning more corners. This high corner count suggested active wing play and attacking pressure, contributing to the overall offensive nature of the fixture.

Clean Sheets

Clean sheets have been historically rare in this matchup, as both teams found the net in most games, emphasizing the attacking focus and defensive vulnerabilities observed during their encounters.

PSV hosted Heerenveen in a high-scoring Eredivisie match featuring numerous corners and goals.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

PSVvsHeerenveen

2.00PPG+100%1.00

60.0%Wins20.0%

3.20Goals/G+100%1.60

1.40Conceded↓ less is better+0%1.40

100.0%Both teams score40.0%

80.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

0.0%No goal conceded40.0%

9.0Corners / game+80%5.0

1.0Cards / game+203%0.3

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

80.0%Over 3.5 goals60.0%

100.0%A goal in 1st half40.0%

80.0%Both teams score · 1st half20.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

PSV

LWDWW

Heerenveen

WDLDL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

PSV · at homevsHeerenveen · away

2.33PPG+40%1.67

3.67Goals/G+37%2.67

1.33Conceded↓ less is better+0%1.33

100.0%Both teams score67.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals100.0%

0.0%No goal conceded33.0%

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

PSVvsHeerenveen

2.90xG for+53%1.90

1.06xG against↓ less is better+48%1.57

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

2.90PSV

4.80Total

1.90Heerenveen

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 70% BTTS · 3.81 goals per game, i.e. 1.90 per team

High-scoring league

PSVvs league avgHeerenveen

3.43+80%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.90↑ more is better1.57−18%

1.43−25%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.91↓ less is better1.29−32%

100.0%+30 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 69.7%43.0%−27 pts

7.57+45%CornersLeague avg 5.235.14−2%

1.71+22%CardsLeague avg 1.401.00−28%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 7 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

PSV#3

Heerenveen#10

4.50Expected goals

84%Both teams score

14.0Corners

1.3Cards

Head to head — 32 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

53%

31%

16%

Based on 32 matches

avg goals/game3.59

PSV · at home

11-5-0

16 matches · 46-20 goals

Heerenveen · away

0-5-11

16 matches · 20-46 goals

Last 10 meetings

21 Feb 2026homePSV3-1Heerenveen

4 Feb 2026homePSV4-1Heerenveen

6 Dec 2025awayPSV2-0Heerenveen

8 Mar 2025homePSV2-1Heerenveen

14 Dec 2024awayPSV0-1Heerenveen

25 Apr 2024awayPSV8-0Heerenveen

7 Dec 2023homePSV2-0Heerenveen

21 May 2023homePSV3-3Heerenveen

9 Oct 2022awayPSV1-0Heerenveen

20 Feb 2022homePSV3-1Heerenveen

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

PSV

Coming into this game, PSV has picked up 12 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. PSV has scored 20 times in the last 5 fixtures.

PSV has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.

PSV will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Heerenveen, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 4 and drawn 0

The last 5 games for PSV has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season PSV has seen a total of 7/7 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 100% of all matches played.

Heerenveen

Coming into this game, Heerenveen has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Heerenveen has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Heerenveen has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.

Heerenveen has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Heerenveen recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Heerenveen has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 3/7 games for Heerenveen this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.