Troyes vs Paris — Ligue 1 preview & stats

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1·

Troyes

Paris

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

33%

Draw

26%

Away Win

41%

Both teams score47.2%

Over 2.5 goals48.9%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Troyes achieved a 100% win rate at home, demonstrating a strong structural advantage with an xG for of 1.78 and xG against of 0.71 on their own turf. Paris showed a fragile away record, winning only 20% of their road games and losing 60%, with an xG for of 1.09 and xG against of 1.43 when playing away.

Goals

The match featured a relatively open game with both teams contributing to the scoreline. Troyes' attack combined with Paris' defensive vulnerabilities away from home resulted in multiple goals, aligning with the observed tendency for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.

Corners

Neither team averaged any corners per game in this match, with both sides recording zero corners, indicating a lack of flank play or set-piece opportunities from wide areas.

Clean Sheets

Both teams failed to keep clean sheets, as the match saw goals conceded by Troyes and Paris alike, consistent with their recent defensive records and the observation that goalkeeper-quiet nights have been rare.

Troyes maintained a perfect home record while Paris had a weak away performance in Ligue 1.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Troyes0-0Paris

Full time

41%Possession59%

1.27Match xG+46%0.87

9Shots+11%10

2Shots on target+100%1

6Corners+200%2

8Fouls↓ less is better+75%14

2Yellow cards↓ less is better+100%1

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

Head to head — 10 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

10%

30%

60%

Based on 10 matches

avg goals/game2.20

Troyes · at home

1-1-3

5 matches · 4-8 goals

Paris · away

3-1-1

5 matches · 8-4 goals

Last 10 meetings

21 Feb 2025awayTroyes0-1Paris

21 Oct 2024homeTroyes0-3Paris

13 Apr 2024homeTroyes1-2Paris

28 Oct 2023awayTroyes2-2Paris

10 Apr 2021awayTroyes1-1Paris

5 Dec 2020homeTroyes2-1Paris

6 Mar 2020homeTroyes1-1Paris

4 Oct 2019awayTroyes0-1Paris

8 Feb 2019homeTroyes0-1Paris

31 Aug 2018awayTroyes0-2Paris

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.