Troyes vs Olympique Marseille — Ligue 1 preview & stats

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1·

Troyes

Olympique Marseille

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Both teams score65.1%

Over 2.5 goals64.1%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Troyes generated nearly two xG per home game, showing solid offensive output at their stadium. Marseille's away performances combined capable attacking play with some defensive vulnerabilities, resulting in a head-to-head xG total around three and a half, indicating a match with multiple scoring opportunities but not an overwhelming goal count.

Goals

The match featured at least one goal, with a significant portion of scoring chances and goals occurring in the second half. Historical data showed an average of nearly three goals per game between these teams, and this fixture reflected that trend with active offensive phases after the break.

Corners

The game saw a busy corner count, aligning with the combined average of fourteen and a half corners per match for these teams. Troyes averaged eight and a half corners per home game, while Marseille averaged six corners away, contributing to a lively contest for set-piece opportunities.

Clean Sheets

Defensive performances varied, with Marseille's away record indicating some susceptibility. The match did not result in a clean sheet for either side, as both teams created chances and contributed to the goal tally, particularly in the latter stages of the game.

Troyes hosted Olympique Marseille in a Ligue 1 match featuring notable attacking potential and corner activity.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

TroyesvsOlympique Marseille

0.80PPG0.00

20.0%Wins0.0%

1.20Goals/G+50%0.80

2.60Conceded↓ less is better+18%2.20

60.0%Both teams score60.0%

60.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

0.0%No goal conceded0.0%

8.5Corners / game+42%6.0

1.5Cards / game+33%2.0

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals60.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals40.0%

100.0%A goal in 1st half50.0%

25.0%Both teams score · 1st half50.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Troyes

DLLLW

Olympique Marseille

LLLLL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Troyes · at homevsOlympique Marseille · away

0.50PPG0.00

1.00Goals/G0.00

3.00Conceded↓ less is better+100%1.50

50.0%Both teams score0.0%

50.0%Over 2.5 goals0.0%

50.0%No goal conceded0.0%

Based on 2 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

TroyesvsOlympique Marseille

1.90xG for+21%1.57

1.54xG against↓ less is better+13%1.74

Based on 2 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.90Troyes

3.46Total

1.56Olympique Marseille

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 61% BTTS · 2.90 goals per game, i.e. 1.43 per team

Balanced league

Troyesvs league avgOlympique Marseille

0.80−44%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.43↑ more is better1.40−2%

2.20+50%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.47↓ less is better1.60+9%

40.0%−20 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 60.5%40.0%−20 pts

7.60+58%CornersLeague avg 4.824.60−5%

1.00−43%CardsLeague avg 1.761.80+2%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 5 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Troyes#16

Olympique Marseille#17

2.75Expected goals

25%Over 2.5 goals

25%Both teams score

14.5Corners

3.5Cards

Head to head — 10 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

10%

20%

70%

Based on 10 matches

avg goals/game3.00

Troyes · at home

1-2-2

5 matches · 5-7 goals

Olympique Marseille · away

2-2-1

5 matches · 7-5 goals

Last 10 meetings

16 Apr 2023awayTroyes1-3Olympique Marseille

11 Jan 2023homeTroyes0-2Olympique Marseille

27 Feb 2022homeTroyes1-1Olympique Marseille

28 Nov 2021awayTroyes0-1Olympique Marseille

15 Apr 2018homeTroyes2-3Olympique Marseille

20 Dec 2017awayTroyes1-3Olympique Marseille

14 May 2016homeTroyes1-1Olympique Marseille

23 Aug 2015awayTroyes0-6Olympique Marseille

3 Mar 2013awayTroyes1-2Olympique Marseille

21 Oct 2012homeTroyes1-0Olympique Marseille

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Troyes

Coming into this game, Troyes has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Troyes has scored 4 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Troyes recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Troyes has fired blanks in 3 games this season. That's 60% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 4 goals.

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Troyes has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/5 games for Troyes this season.

Troyes will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 2 matches. During the last five games they have scored 4 times and overall this season they have scored 0.8 goals per game.

Olympique Marseille

Coming into this game, Olympique Marseille has picked up 3 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Olympique Marseille has scored 7 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Olympique Marseille recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Olympique Marseille has fired blanks in 2 games this season. That's 40% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 7 goals.

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Olympique Marseille has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/5 games for Olympique Marseille this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.