PSG vs Le Mans — Ligue 1 preview & stats

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1·

PSG

Le Mans

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

81%

Draw

10%

Away Win

Both teams score53.1%

Over 2.5 goals76.9%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

PSG demonstrated a stronger attacking profile this season with an average xG significantly higher than Le Mans. The home team maintained a solid home xG and a manageable defensive record, reflecting their dominance at Parc des Princes. Historical data showed a high scoring tendency in their direct encounters, with total xG surpassing the usual average for this matchup.

Goals

The fixture featured a strong trend towards multiple goals, with over 2.5 goals occurring in about three-quarters of previous matches between these teams. Both teams scored in every recent meeting, indicating consistent offensive contributions from Le Mans despite PSG's attacking strength.

Corners

The average number of corners in matches between PSG and Le Mans was around ten per game, with PSG generally securing more corners at home. This average supported the occurrence of a relatively high number of set-piece opportunities during the match.

Clean Sheets

PSG's home defensive record showed a reasonable balance, conceding just over one goal on average, which aligned with the historical pattern of both teams scoring. Le Mans managed to find the net in these encounters, preventing clean sheets for PSG in their recent meetings.

PSG hosted Le Mans with a notable difference in attacking efficiency and corner averages between the teams.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

PSGvsLe Mans

2.00PPG+100%1.00

60.0%Wins20.0%

2.40Goals/G+50%1.60

1.20Conceded↓ less is better+50%1.80

80.0%Both teams score100.0%

80.0%Over 2.5 goals80.0%

20.0%No goal conceded0.0%

6.0Corners / game+50%4.0

1.0Cards / game+200%3.0

Goals · 1st half

80.0%Over 1.5 goals100.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals40.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half100.0%

0.0%Both teams score · 1st half75.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

PSG

WWWLD

Le Mans

LWDDL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

PSG · at homevsLe Mans · away

0.00PPG0.50

1.00Goals/G+50%1.50

2.00Conceded↓ less is better+0%2.00

100.0%Both teams score100.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals50.0%

0.0%No goal conceded0.0%

Based on 1 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

PSGvsLe Mans

2.71xG for+146%1.10

0.56xG against↓ less is better+193%1.64

Based on 1 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

2.71PSG

3.81Total

1.10Le Mans

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 61% BTTS · 2.84 goals per game, i.e. 1.41 per team

Balanced league

PSGvs league avgLe Mans

1.60+13%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.41↑ more is better1.80+27%

1.40−2%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.43↓ less is better1.80+26%

80.0%+19 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 60.7%100.0%+39 pts

6.00+25%CornersLeague avg 4.802.60−46%

1.40−17%CardsLeague avg 1.682.40+43%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 5 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

PSG#6

Le Mans#10

3.25Expected goals

75%Over 2.5 goals

10.0Corners

4.0Cards

Head to head — 5 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

80%

20%

Based on 5 matches

avg goals/game2.80

PSG · at home

2-0-0

2 matches · 5-1 goals

Le Mans · away

0-0-2

2 matches · 1-5 goals

Last 5 meetings

4 Feb 2025awayPSG2-0Le Mans

18 Dec 2019awayPSG4-1Le Mans

2 Mar 2011homePSG2-0Le Mans

8 May 2010awayPSG0-1Le Mans

15 Aug 2009homePSG3-1Le Mans

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

PSG

Coming into this game, PSG has picked up 8 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. PSG has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.

PSG has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

PSG will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Le Mans, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 2 and drawn 2

In the last 5 matches for PSG, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (80% of all matches) involving PSG has seen BTTS landing.

Le Mans

Coming into this game, Le Mans has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. Le Mans has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Le Mans has put together a good run of form and has now gone 3 games without defeat.

Le Mans will be looking to keep up the momentum today against PSG, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 1 and drawn 3

The last 5 games for Le Mans has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season Le Mans has seen a total of 5/5 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 100% of all matches played.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.