Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur — Premier League preview & stats

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Premier League Premier League·

Manchester United

Tottenham Hotspur

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

57%

Draw

30%

Away Win

14%

Both teams score54.2%

Over 2.5 goals58.5%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Manchester United demonstrated a strong attacking presence at home, reflected in their higher home xG compared to Tottenham's away xG. Tottenham showed more difficulty in away matches, conceding a higher xG on the road. This contrast influenced the balance in the final third during the match.

Goals

The historical xG for this fixture indicated a relatively high number of goals, with Manchester United's home xG nearly reaching two and Tottenham's away xG slightly above one. Both teams scored, consistent with previous matches where both sides found the net in about a quarter of games.

Corners

The match featured a total of 13.5 corners on average between the two teams, with Manchester United averaging seven corners per home game and Tottenham averaging six and a half away. This resulted in a lively number of set-piece opportunities throughout the game.

Clean Sheets

Tottenham's away defensive record showed they conceded an average of nearly two xG per match, indicating challenges in maintaining clean sheets on the road. Manchester United's home advantage contributed to their offensive pressure, making clean sheets less frequent for visiting teams in this fixture.

Manchester United hosted Tottenham Hotspur with notable attacking strengths and a history of productive matches.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

Manchester UnitedvsTottenham Hotspur

1.00PPG+150%0.40

20.0%Wins0.0%

1.80Goals/G+200%0.60

1.40Conceded↓ less is better+14%1.60

60.0%Both teams score40.0%

60.0%Over 2.5 goals40.0%

20.0%No goal conceded40.0%

7.0Corners / game+8%6.5

1.0Cards / game+50%1.5

Goals · 1st half

80.0%Over 1.5 goals60.0%

60.0%Over 3.5 goals40.0%

40.0%A goal in 1st half40.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half0.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Manchester United

DLLWD

Tottenham Hotspur

LLDDL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Manchester United · at homevsTottenham Hotspur · away

1.50PPG+200%0.50

2.50Goals/G0.00

1.50Conceded↓ less is better+0%1.50

50.0%Both teams score0.0%

50.0%Over 2.5 goals50.0%

0.0%No goal conceded50.0%

Based on 2 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

Manchester UnitedvsTottenham Hotspur

2.51xG for+115%1.17

0.94xG against↓ less is better+102%1.90

Based on 2 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

2.51Manchester United

3.67Total

1.16Tottenham Hotspur

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 50% BTTS · 2.82 goals per game, i.e. 1.41 per team

Balanced league

Manchester Unitedvs league avgTottenham Hotspur

1.60+13%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.41↑ more is better0.40−72%

1.60+13%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.41↓ less is better1.60+13%

60.0%+10 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 50.0%20.0%−30 pts

7.20+54%CornersLeague avg 4.697.60+62%

1.20−39%CardsLeague avg 1.971.00−49%

Based on 20 teams for the league averages; 5 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Manchester United#12

Tottenham Hotspur#20

2.75Expected goals

50%Over 2.5 goals

25%Both teams score

13.5Corners

2.5Cards

Head to head — 43 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

49%

23%

28%

Based on 43 matches

avg goals/game2.81

Manchester United · at home

15-1-5

21 matches · 39-26 goals

Tottenham Hotspur · away

5-1-15

21 matches · 26-39 goals

Last 10 meetings

7 Feb 2026homeManchester United2-0Tottenham Hotspur

8 Nov 2025awayManchester United2-2Tottenham Hotspur

21 May 2025awayManchester United0-1Tottenham Hotspur

16 Feb 2025awayManchester United0-1Tottenham Hotspur

19 Dec 2024awayManchester United3-4Tottenham Hotspur

29 Sept 2024homeManchester United0-3Tottenham Hotspur

14 Jan 2024homeManchester United2-2Tottenham Hotspur

19 Aug 2023awayManchester United0-2Tottenham Hotspur

27 Apr 2023awayManchester United2-2Tottenham Hotspur

19 Oct 2022homeManchester United2-0Tottenham Hotspur

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Manchester United

Coming into this game, Manchester United has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Manchester United has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Manchester United recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Manchester United has fired blanks in 2 games this season. That's 40% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 8 goals.

In the last 5 matches for Manchester United, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 3 matches (60% of all matches) involving Manchester United has seen BTTS landing.

Tottenham Hotspur

Coming into this game, Tottenham Hotspur has picked up 2 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 1 of those games. Tottenham Hotspur has scored 2 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Can Tottenham Hotspur turn this around? They have not won in the last 5 games coming into this, with 2 draws and 3 defeats.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Tottenham Hotspur recently, with the side failing to score in 4 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Tottenham Hotspur has fired blanks in 4 games this season. That's 80% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 2 goals.

Just 1 of the last 5 games for Tottenham Hotspur has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 0 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 1/5 games for Tottenham Hotspur this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.