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Premier League·
Win Probabilities
The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.
Match analysis
Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.
Everton hosted Chelsea in a Premier League match notable for its goal-scoring potential and corner statistics.
Recent form and stats
How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.
Last 5 matches
Based on the last 5 matches.
›Understanding these indicators
- Sample
- The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
- The gap, in percent
- The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
- PPG
- Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
- Wins
- The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
- Goals/G
- Goals scored per game, on average.
- Conceded
- Goals conceded per game, on average.
- Both teams score
- The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
- Over 2.5 goals
- The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
- No goal conceded
- The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
- Corners / game
- Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
- Cards / game
- Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
- Over 1.5 goals
- The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
- Over 3.5 goals
- The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
- A goal in 1st half
- The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
- Both teams score · 1st half
- The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.
Recent form
Most recent on the left.
Home / Away Splits
Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.
This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record
Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.
›Understanding these indicators
- Sample
- The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
- The gap, in percent
- The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
- PPG
- Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
- Goals/G
- Goals scored per game, on average.
- Conceded
- Goals conceded per game, on average.
- Both teams score
- The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
- Over 2.5 goals
- The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
- No goal conceded
- The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Expected Goals (xG)
Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.
This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors
Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.
›Understanding these indicators
- Sample
- The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
- The gap, in percent
- The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
- xG for
- Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
- xG against
- Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.
Expected in this match
League Context
The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.
League averages: 55% BTTS · 2.95 goals per game, i.e. 1.48 per team
High-scoring leagueBased on 20 teams for the league averages; 6 matches played by each of the two teams.
›Understanding this block
- What is compared
- Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
- Why two units
- A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
- What the sign means
- A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
- The reference
- Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
- The colours
- Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.
Estimates & Standings
Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.
Head to head — 43 matches
The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.
Based on 43 matches
Everton · at home
12-4-6
22 matches · 29-19 goals
Chelsea · away
6-4-12
22 matches · 19-29 goals
Last 10 meetings
Match Insights
Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.
Everton
Chelsea
Third-party source
Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.
Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.