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Premier League·
Win Probabilities
The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.
Our Prediction
What we're backing on this match. Many matches have none: we only publish those that clear our thresholds.
For every selection: the market, the odds, the gap to market and the model's probability.
Match analysis
Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.
Crystal Palace hosted Manchester City in a Premier League match featuring contrasting home and away statistics.
Match report
The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.
Full time
xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.
League Context
The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.
League averages: 40% BTTS · 3.00 goals per game, i.e. 1.50 per team
High-scoring leagueBased on 20 teams for the league averages; 1 matches played by each of the two teams.
›Understanding this block
- What is compared
- Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
- Why two units
- A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
- What the sign means
- A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
- The reference
- Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
- The colours
- Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.
Standings
Where each team sits in its league table.
Head to head — 30 matches
The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.
Based on 30 matches
Crystal Palace · at home
2-3-11
16 matches · 9-28 goals
Manchester City · away
11-3-2
16 matches · 28-9 goals
Last 10 meetings
Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.
Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.