AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland — Premier League preview & stats

← Back to Today

Free Preview — Subscribe for every pick and full access

Premier League Premier League·

AFC Bournemouth

Sunderland

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

55%

Draw

23%

Away Win

22%

Both teams score52.2%

Over 2.5 goals56.4%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

AFC Bournemouth demonstrated strong home performance with a 40% win rate and an attacking advantage reflected in their overall home strength rating. Sunderland showed a 25% away win rate with an away xG indicating offensive threat, though they faced pressure from Bournemouth's home setup. The combined xG before kickoff was around 3.3, indicating a match with moderate to high scoring opportunities rather than a defensive encounter.

Goals

Both teams had a history of scoring in 84% of their matches, with over 1.5 goals occurring frequently and over 2.5 goals in about half of their games. The xG split was close, with Bournemouth at 1.72 and Sunderland at 1.63, reflecting an open game with chances on both sides.

Corners

The match featured an average of 9.33 corners, consistent with the combined average of both teams. Bournemouth averaged 5.0 corners per game at home, while Sunderland averaged 4.33 away. Bournemouth tended to have the majority of corners, aligning with their home attacking style.

Clean Sheets

The data did not emphasize clean sheets, reflecting the offensive nature of both teams and the frequency of goals being scored by both sides during the match.

AFC Bournemouth hosted Sunderland in a Premier League match featuring strong attacking tendencies and notable corner statistics.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

AFC BournemouthvsSunderland

1.40PPG+17%1.20

40.0%Wins40.0%

1.60Goals/G+33%1.20

1.80Conceded↓ less is better+11%2.00

60.0%Both teams score40.0%

80.0%Over 2.5 goals40.0%

20.0%No goal conceded20.0%

5.0Corners / game+15%4.3

3.0Cards / game+50%2.0

Goals · 1st half

80.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals20.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half40.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half20.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

AFC Bournemouth

WLLWD

Sunderland

WLLWL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

AFC Bournemouth · at homevsSunderland · away

0.67PPG+103%0.33

1.00Goals/G+67%1.67

1.33Conceded↓ less is better+101%2.67

67.0%Both teams score100.0%

33.0%Over 2.5 goals67.0%

0.0%No goal conceded0.0%

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

AFC BournemouthvsSunderland

1.72xG for+6%1.63

1.30xG against↓ less is better+5%1.37

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.72AFC Bournemouth

3.35Total

1.63Sunderland

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 54% BTTS · 2.90 goals per game, i.e. 1.45 per team

High-scoring league

AFC Bournemouthvs league avgSunderland

1.17−19%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.45↑ more is better1.00−31%

2.17+49%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.46↓ less is better2.00+37%

83.0%+29 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 53.5%50.0%−4 pts

4.67−1%CornersLeague avg 4.704.50−4%

3.00+41%CardsLeague avg 2.122.00−6%

Based on 20 teams for the league averages; 6 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

AFC Bournemouth#20

Sunderland#18

3.33Expected goals

50%Over 2.5 goals

84%Both teams score

9.3Corners

5.0Cards

Head to head — 6 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

33%

Based on 6 matches

avg goals/game2.50

AFC Bournemouth · at home

1-1-1

3 matches · 4-3 goals

Sunderland · away

1-1-1

3 matches · 3-4 goals

Last 6 meetings

28 Feb 2026homeAFC Bournemouth1-1Sunderland

29 Nov 2025awayAFC Bournemouth2-3Sunderland

29 Apr 2017awayAFC Bournemouth1-0Sunderland

5 Nov 2016homeAFC Bournemouth1-2Sunderland

23 Jan 2016awayAFC Bournemouth1-1Sunderland

19 Sept 2015homeAFC Bournemouth2-0Sunderland

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

AFC Bournemouth

Coming into this game, AFC Bournemouth has picked up 3 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. AFC Bournemouth has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Can AFC Bournemouth turn this around? They have not won in the last 5 games coming into this, with 3 draws and 2 defeats.

In the last 5 matches for AFC Bournemouth, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 5 matches (83% of all matches) involving AFC Bournemouth has seen BTTS landing.

Sunderland

Coming into this game, Sunderland has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Sunderland has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Sunderland recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Sunderland has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 3/6 games for Sunderland this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.