Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United — Premier League preview & stats

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Premier League Premier League·

Nottingham Forest

Leeds United

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

43%

Draw

25%

Away Win

32%

Both teams score52.9%

Over 2.5 goals46.6%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Nottingham Forest demonstrated a strong home record with a 60% win rate and a home xG of 1.47, indicating effective control and pressure phases during matches at The City Ground. Leeds United showed a lower away win rate of 33%, with an away xG of 1.35 and a slightly higher xG against of 1.46, reflecting occasional offensive threats but less consistency on the road.

Goals

The match featured modest expected goals for both teams, aligning with the observed scoring patterns. Both sides contributed to the scoreline, consistent with a BTTS (both teams to score) occurrence. The goal distribution suggested a competitive game with neither side dominating offensively.

Corners

Neither Nottingham Forest nor Leeds United averaged any corners per game in this fixture, indicating a lack of set-piece opportunities from wide areas during the match.

Clean Sheets

Defensive discipline was notable for Nottingham Forest at home, contributing to a defensive advantage in this context. However, clean sheets were not secured by either team in this match, reflecting the openness in goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Nottingham Forest hosted Leeds United in a Premier League match marked by modest scoring and defensive discipline.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Nottingham Forest0-1Leeds United

Full time

55%Possession45%

1.27Match xG+10%1.15

12Shots+9%11

2Shots on target+50%3

3Corners+50%2

15Fouls↓ less is better+7%14

2Yellow cards↓ less is better+100%1

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

Head to head — 25 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

40%

28%

32%

Based on 25 matches

avg goals/game2.96

Nottingham Forest · at home

7-3-3

13 matches · 22-18 goals

Leeds United · away

3-3-7

13 matches · 18-22 goals

Last 10 meetings

6 Feb 2026awayNottingham Forest1-3Leeds United

9 Nov 2025homeNottingham Forest3-1Leeds United

27 Jul 2023homeNottingham Forest0-2Leeds United

4 Apr 2023awayNottingham Forest1-2Leeds United

5 Feb 2023homeNottingham Forest1-0Leeds United

8 Feb 2020homeNottingham Forest2-0Leeds United

10 Aug 2019awayNottingham Forest1-1Leeds United

1 Jan 2019homeNottingham Forest4-2Leeds United

27 Oct 2018awayNottingham Forest1-1Leeds United

1 Jan 2018awayNottingham Forest0-0Leeds United

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.