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Premier League·
Win Probabilities
The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.
Our Prediction
What we're backing on this match. Many matches have none: we only publish those that clear our thresholds.
For every selection: the market, the odds, the gap to market and the model's probability.
Match analysis
Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.
Aston Villa hosted Arsenal with contrasting home and away performances reflected in their recent statistics.
Match report
The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.
Full time
xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.
League Context
The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.
League averages: 50% BTTS · 3.23 goals per game, i.e. 1.60 per team
High-scoring leagueBased on 20 teams for the league averages; 1 matches played by each of the two teams.
›Understanding this block
- What is compared
- Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
- Why two units
- A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
- What the sign means
- A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
- The reference
- Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
- The colours
- Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.
Standings
Where each team sits in its league table.
Head to head — 34 matches
The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.
Based on 34 matches
Aston Villa · at home
4-3-9
16 matches · 14-25 goals
Arsenal · away
9-3-4
16 matches · 25-14 goals
Last 10 meetings
Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.
Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.