Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad — La Liga preview & stats

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Málaga CF

Real Sociedad

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Both teams score59.1%

Over 2.5 goals53.5%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Málaga CF played at home with a home xG for and against close to parity, while Real Sociedad showed a higher away xG for but also a higher xG against, indicating offensive strength paired with defensive vulnerabilities. Historically, matches between these teams featured a high rate of both teams scoring, occurring in about three-quarters of their encounters. The scoring tempo showed chances and goals in both halves, with a stronger tendency for both teams to score in the first half than the second.

Goals

The match context reflected a moderately open game with an average of over two and a half goals in similar fixtures. Both teams had tendencies to score, supported by historical data showing a 75% rate of both teams scoring. The first half saw more frequent BTTS occurrences than the second, indicating early or late goals were common in their meetings.

Corners

The average number of corners for Málaga at home was slightly above six per game, while Real Sociedad averaged six corners away. The combined average for such matches was around twelve corners, suggesting active wing play and set-piece opportunities from both sides.

Clean Sheets

Given the xG figures and historical scoring patterns, clean sheets have been historically rare in this fixture, with both teams often conceding goals. The defensive records indicated that neither side maintained a strong clean sheet frequency in their encounters, contributing to the high BTTS rate.

Málaga CF hosted Real Sociedad in La Liga's ninth round, featuring notable scoring and corner trends.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

Málaga CFvsReal Sociedad

0.60PPG+133%1.40

0.0%Wins40.0%

0.60Goals/G+167%1.60

1.20Conceded↓ less is better+67%2.00

60.0%Both teams score80.0%

20.0%Over 2.5 goals80.0%

20.0%No goal conceded0.0%

6.3Corners / game+4%6.0

3.5Cards / game+17%3.0

Goals · 1st half

60.0%Over 1.5 goals100.0%

20.0%Over 3.5 goals40.0%

60.0%A goal in 1st half60.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half0.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Málaga CF

DLLDD

Real Sociedad

DWWLL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Málaga CF · at homevsReal Sociedad · away

0.75PPG+100%1.50

0.75Goals/G+133%1.75

1.25Conceded↓ less is better+80%2.25

75.0%Both teams score75.0%

25.0%Over 2.5 goals75.0%

25.0%No goal conceded0.0%

Based on 4 home matches / 4 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

Málaga CFvsReal Sociedad

1.26xG for+15%1.45

1.29xG against↓ less is better+76%2.27

Based on 4 home matches / 4 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.26Málaga CF

2.71Total

1.45Real Sociedad

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 58% BTTS · 3.02 goals per game, i.e. 1.50 per team

High-scoring league

Málaga CFvs league avgReal Sociedad

0.50−67%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.50↑ more is better1.50+0%

1.63+7%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.52↓ less is better1.88+24%

50.0%−8 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 58.0%63.0%+5 pts

5.75+17%CornersLeague avg 4.927.25+47%

2.75+10%CardsLeague avg 2.492.63+6%

Based on 20 teams for the league averages; 8 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Málaga CF#20

Real Sociedad#6

3.00Expected goals

50%Over 2.5 goals

75%Both teams score

12.3Corners

6.5Cards

Head to head — 17 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

29%

41%

Based on 17 matches

avg goals/game2.47

Málaga CF · at home

2-2-5

9 matches · 9-11 goals

Real Sociedad · away

5-2-2

9 matches · 11-9 goals

Last 10 meetings

7 Jan 2024homeMálaga CF0-1Real Sociedad

22 Apr 2018homeMálaga CF2-0Real Sociedad

10 Dec 2017awayMálaga CF2-0Real Sociedad

14 May 2017awayMálaga CF2-2Real Sociedad

16 Jan 2017homeMálaga CF0-2Real Sociedad

27 Feb 2016awayMálaga CF1-1Real Sociedad

3 Oct 2015homeMálaga CF3-1Real Sociedad

4 Apr 2015homeMálaga CF1-1Real Sociedad

1 Nov 2014awayMálaga CF1-0Real Sociedad

17 Feb 2014homeMálaga CF0-1Real Sociedad

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Málaga CF

Coming into this game, Málaga CF has picked up 3 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Málaga CF has scored 3 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Can Málaga CF turn this around? They have not won in the last 5 games coming into this, with 3 draws and 2 defeats.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Málaga CF recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Málaga CF has fired blanks in 4 games this season. That's 50% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 3 goals.

In the last 5 matches for Málaga CF, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (50% of all matches) involving Málaga CF has seen BTTS landing.

Real Sociedad

Coming into this game, Real Sociedad has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Real Sociedad has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Real Sociedad has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.

Real Sociedad has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Real Sociedad will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Málaga CF, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Real Sociedad recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Showing 5 of 7 trends.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.