Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 — Bundesliga preview & stats

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Bundesliga Bundesliga·

Hamburger SV

Mainz 05

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Both teams score50.3%

Over 2.5 goals56.0%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Mainz 05 displayed outstanding away statistics with a high away xG and a low xG against, achieving a 75% win rate on the road. Hamburger SV showed a modest home attack with a lower xG for and a solid defensive record at home. The home advantage for HSV in attack was positive, but their defensive performance at home was notably negative, resulting in an overall negative balance.

Goals

Matches between these teams have frequently featured over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in many games, reflecting Mainz's strong away scoring and HSV's home attacking capabilities.

Corners

Mainz averaged a high number of corners per game away, significantly more than HSV's low home average. This contributed to a match with a relatively high corner count.

Clean Sheets

HSV's defensive xG against at home indicated some capacity to keep clean sheets, but Mainz's strong away attack often challenged this, with goals scored by both sides in many encounters.

Mainz 05 demonstrated strong away performance while Hamburger SV showed modest home attacking figures.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Hamburger SV0-5Mainz 05

Full time

54%Possession46%

0.82Match xG+133%1.91

8Shots+113%17

1Shots on target+700%8

4Corners+25%5

13Fouls↓ less is better+8%12

1Yellow cards↓ less is better+200%3

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 53% BTTS · 3.69 goals per game, i.e. 1.86 per team

High-scoring league

Hamburger SVvs league avgMainz 05

0.00−100%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.86↑ more is better0.00−100%

2.00+9%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.83↓ less is better0.00−100%

0.0%−53 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 52.8%0.0%−53 pts

1.00−83%CornersLeague avg 5.7811.00+90%

1.00−46%CardsLeague avg 1.861.00−46%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 1 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Standings

Where each team sits in its league table.

Hamburger SV#16

Mainz 05#11

Head to head — 22 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

27%

41%

32%

Based on 22 matches

avg goals/game2.41

Hamburger SV · at home

3-4-4

11 matches · 14-14 goals

Mainz 05 · away

4-4-3

11 matches · 14-14 goals

Last 10 meetings

20 Feb 2026awayHamburger SV1-1Mainz 05

5 Oct 2025homeHamburger SV4-0Mainz 05

3 Mar 2018homeHamburger SV0-0Mainz 05

14 Oct 2017awayHamburger SV2-3Mainz 05

7 May 2017homeHamburger SV0-0Mainz 05

17 Dec 2016awayHamburger SV1-3Mainz 05

30 Apr 2016awayHamburger SV0-0Mainz 05

5 Dec 2015homeHamburger SV1-3Mainz 05

3 May 2015awayHamburger SV2-1Mainz 05

7 Dec 2014homeHamburger SV2-1Mainz 05

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.