Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart — Bundesliga preview & stats

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Bundesliga Bundesliga·

Hamburger SV

Stuttgart

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

43%

Draw

18%

Away Win

39%

Both teams score52.6%

Over 2.5 goals66.0%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Stuttgart showed a stronger away attacking performance with an xG of 1.87 compared to Hamburger SV's home xG against of 1.40. The average total goals in previous encounters between these teams were high, at 3.84, indicating a history of open and high-scoring matches.

Goals

Both teams had a tendency to score in their matches, with a 59% rate of both teams scoring before this game, consistent across both halves. This trend aligned with the observed average of over 2.5 goals in their meetings, reflecting matches with multiple goals.

Corners

The corner statistics indicated active wing play, with Hamburger SV averaging 3.5 corners per game at home and Stuttgart averaging 5.0 corners per game away, leading to a combined average of 8.5 corners per match. This reflected a busy afternoon on the flanks for both teams.

Clean Sheets

Neither team had a dominant defensive record in their recent encounters, as the frequency of both teams scoring suggested that clean sheets were relatively uncommon in their matches.

Hamburger SV hosted Stuttgart in a Bundesliga match featuring notable attacking statistics and corner activity.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

Hamburger SVvsStuttgart

1.80PPG+33%2.40

60.0%Wins80.0%

1.40Goals/G+86%2.60

2.60Conceded↓ less is better+1200%0.20

40.0%Both teams score0.0%

80.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

20.0%No goal conceded80.0%

3.5Corners / game+43%5.0

1.5Cards / game+50%1.0

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

60.0%Over 3.5 goals20.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half80.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half0.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Hamburger SV

WWWLL

Stuttgart

WWWWL

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Hamburger SV · at homevsStuttgart · away

1.50PPG+50%1.00

1.00Goals/G+33%1.33

3.00Conceded↓ less is better+29%2.33

50.0%Both teams score67.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals67.0%

0.0%No goal conceded33.0%

Based on 2 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

Hamburger SVvsStuttgart

1.08xG for+54%1.66

1.83xG against↓ less is better+28%2.35

Based on 2 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.08Hamburger SV

2.74Total

1.66Stuttgart

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 58% BTTS · 3.76 goals per game, i.e. 1.89 per team

High-scoring league

Hamburger SVvs league avgStuttgart

1.00−47%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.89↑ more is better1.60−15%

3.00+60%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.87↓ less is better1.80−4%

40.0%−18 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 58.3%60.0%+2 pts

3.60−33%CornersLeague avg 5.386.20+15%

1.20−34%CardsLeague avg 1.811.20−34%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 5 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Hamburger SV#13

Stuttgart#12

3.84Expected goals

84%Over 2.5 goals

59%Both teams score

8.5Corners

2.5Cards

Head to head — 30 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

37%

57%

Based on 30 matches

avg goals/game3.37

Hamburger SV · at home

8-1-6

15 matches · 34-28 goals

Stuttgart · away

6-1-8

15 matches · 28-34 goals

Last 10 meetings

12 Apr 2026awayHamburger SV0-4Stuttgart

30 Nov 2025homeHamburger SV2-1Stuttgart

5 Jun 2023homeHamburger SV1-3Stuttgart

1 Jun 2023awayHamburger SV0-3Stuttgart

28 May 2020awayHamburger SV2-3Stuttgart

29 Oct 2019homeHamburger SV1-2Stuttgart

26 Oct 2019homeHamburger SV6-2Stuttgart

31 Mar 2018awayHamburger SV1-1Stuttgart

4 Nov 2017homeHamburger SV3-1Stuttgart

30 Jan 2016awayHamburger SV1-2Stuttgart

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Hamburger SV

Coming into this game, Hamburger SV has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Hamburger SV has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Hamburger SV has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Hamburger SV recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Hamburger SV has fired blanks in 3 games this season. That's 60% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 5 goals.

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Hamburger SV has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/5 games for Hamburger SV this season.

Stuttgart

Coming into this game, Stuttgart has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Stuttgart has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.

In the last 5 matches for Stuttgart, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 3 matches (60% of all matches) involving Stuttgart has seen BTTS landing.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.