Moreirense FC vs Gil Vicente — Liga NOS preview & stats

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Liga NOS Liga NOS·

Moreirense FC

Gil Vicente

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

36%

Draw

30%

Away Win

34%

Both teams score50.8%

Over 2.5 goals42.8%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Moreirense played at home with an average xG of just over one for and slightly higher against, resulting in a home win rate of 40%. Gil Vicente, playing away, generated slightly less than one xG per match while conceding more than one and a half xG on average. The match involved a competitive dynamic between the two teams, with historical data showing a tendency for multiple goals in their encounters.

Goals

Previous meetings between these teams frequently produced more than two and a half goals, occurring in about three-quarters of their matches, and similarly, over three and a half goals also appeared in roughly the same share. However, none of their past games exceeded four and a half goals, indicating a typical goal range of two to three. Both teams scored in just under 60% of league matches, reflecting a moderate frequency of goals from both sides.

Corners

Moreirense averaged over three corners per home game, while Gil Vicente averaged one and a half corners away. The total corners per match between these teams averaged close to five, with Moreirense holding a clear advantage in corner counts due to their home performance.

Clean Sheets

Defensive records indicated that both teams conceded more chances than they created, with Moreirense allowing slightly more xG than they produced at home and Gil Vicente conceding significantly more away. This reflected difficulties in maintaining clean sheets for both sides during the match.

Moreirense hosted Gil Vicente in a Liga NOS match featuring notable scoring and corner statistics.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

Moreirense FCvsGil Vicente

1.40PPG+40%1.00

40.0%Wins20.0%

1.20Goals/G+50%0.80

1.60Conceded↓ less is better+60%1.00

60.0%Both teams score40.0%

60.0%Over 2.5 goals20.0%

20.0%No goal conceded40.0%

3.3Corners / game+122%1.5

3.0Cards / game+17%3.5

Goals · 1st half

80.0%Over 1.5 goals60.0%

40.0%Over 3.5 goals20.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half80.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half20.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Moreirense FC

DWLLW

Gil Vicente

DLLDW

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Moreirense FC · at homevsGil Vicente · away

1.33PPG+166%0.50

1.67Goals/G+234%0.50

2.33Conceded↓ less is better+55%1.50

67.0%Both teams score50.0%

100.0%Over 2.5 goals50.0%

0.0%No goal conceded50.0%

Based on 3 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

Moreirense FCvsGil Vicente

0.91xG for+49%0.61

1.68xG against↓ less is better+15%1.46

Based on 3 home matches / 2 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

0.91Moreirense FC

1.51Total

0.60Gil Vicente

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 50% BTTS · 2.73 goals per game, i.e. 1.36 per team

Balanced league

Moreirense FCvs league avgGil Vicente

1.14−16%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.36↑ more is better0.83−39%

2.00+47%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.36↓ less is better0.83−39%

57.0%+7 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 49.8%33.0%−17 pts

2.14−50%CornersLeague avg 4.303.67−15%

2.86+28%CardsLeague avg 2.241.67−25%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 7 matches played for Moreirense FC, 6 for Gil Vicente.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Moreirense FC#12

Gil Vicente#9

3.00Expected goals

75%Over 2.5 goals

59%Both teams score

4.8Corners

6.5Cards

Head to head — 19 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

42%

26%

32%

Based on 19 matches

avg goals/game2.68

Moreirense FC · at home

3-4-2

9 matches · 13-9 goals

Gil Vicente · away

2-4-3

9 matches · 9-13 goals

Last 10 meetings

7 Feb 2026homeMoreirense FC1-2Gil Vicente

29 Aug 2025awayMoreirense FC0-2Gil Vicente

6 Apr 2025awayMoreirense FC1-0Gil Vicente

12 Jan 2025awayMoreirense FC0-1Gil Vicente

8 Nov 2024homeMoreirense FC3-2Gil Vicente

20 Apr 2024homeMoreirense FC0-1Gil Vicente

11 Dec 2023awayMoreirense FC1-1Gil Vicente

8 Apr 2022awayMoreirense FC2-1Gil Vicente

26 Nov 2021homeMoreirense FC2-2Gil Vicente

11 Apr 2021awayMoreirense FC2-1Gil Vicente

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Moreirense FC

Coming into this game, Moreirense FC has picked up 7 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Moreirense FC has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Moreirense FC has put together a good run of form and has now gone 2 games without defeat.

In the last 5 matches for Moreirense FC, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (57% of all matches) involving Moreirense FC has seen BTTS landing.

Gil Vicente

Coming into this game, Gil Vicente has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Gil Vicente has scored 4 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Gil Vicente recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Just 2 of the last 5 games for Gil Vicente has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/6 games for Gil Vicente this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.