Sporting CP vs FC Arouca — Liga NOS preview & stats

← Back to Today

Free Preview — Subscribe for every pick and full access

Liga NOS Liga NOS·

Sporting CP

FC Arouca

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

77%

Draw

12%

Away Win

10%

Both teams score44.9%

Over 2.5 goals67.2%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Sporting CP maintained a high home win rate, securing victories in the majority of their matches with an above-average home xG, indicating consistent offensive pressure. FC Arouca showed moderate success away, winning less frequently and generating lower xG, while conceding more, which highlighted defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

Goals

The combined average xG for the match was moderate, indicating a competitive but not high-scoring game. Sporting CP's defense limited opponents to a low xG against at home, contributing to a relatively tight contest. Goal scoring was more frequent in the second half, with a significant majority of goals occurring after halftime.

Corners

The match featured a higher number of corners for Sporting CP, averaging nearly seven per game at home, compared to Arouca's two per away game. The total corners approached nine, reflecting active wing play and set-piece opportunities, particularly favoring the home side.

Clean Sheets

Sporting CP's defensive record at home included a low xG against, which contributed to several clean sheets. Arouca's away defensive record was less robust, which aligned with their conceding more goals and fewer clean sheets on the road.

Sporting CP demonstrated strong home performance against FC Arouca, with notable attacking and defensive statistics.

Recent form and stats

How both teams are playing right now, over two windows — one long, one short. A gap between the two says a trend is shifting.

Last 5 matches

Sporting CPvsFC Arouca

2.60PPG+86%1.40

80.0%Wins40.0%

2.60Goals/G+86%1.40

0.60Conceded↓ less is better+67%1.00

60.0%Both teams score40.0%

60.0%Over 2.5 goals60.0%

40.0%No goal conceded40.0%

6.7Corners / game+234%2.0

2.3Cards / game+17%2.0

Goals · 1st half

100.0%Over 1.5 goals80.0%

60.0%Over 3.5 goals20.0%

80.0%A goal in 1st half60.0%

20.0%Both teams score · 1st half20.0%

Based on the last 5 matches.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Wins: The share of matches won. A draw does not count here, even though it earns a point.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.
Corners / game: Corners won per game, on average. Neither good nor bad in itself: it is a style trait.
Cards / game: Cards received per game, on average — yellow and red combined.
Over 1.5 goals: The share of matches with 2 goals or more.
Over 3.5 goals: The share of matches with 4 goals or more.
A goal in 1st half: The share of matches where at least one goal was scored before half-time.
Both teams score · 1st half: The share of matches where both teams had scored BEFORE half-time.

Recent form

Sporting CP

DWWWW

FC Arouca

LDWLW

Most recent on the left.

Home / Away Splits

Some teams are two different teams depending on the venue. This block is where you find out whether that is the case here.

This season — home team's home record vs away team's away record

Sporting CP · at homevsFC Arouca · away

3.00PPG+126%1.33

2.67Goals/G+709%0.33

1.00Conceded↓ less is better+49%0.67

67.0%Both teams score0.0%

67.0%Over 2.5 goals0.0%

33.0%No goal conceded67.0%

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
PPG: Points per game: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, divided by matches played. It is the most direct measure of what a team collects, whatever the scoreline.
Goals/G: Goals scored per game, on average.
Conceded: Goals conceded per game, on average.
Both teams score: The share of matches where BOTH teams scored at least once. A 3-0 does not count; a 1-1 does.
Over 2.5 goals: The share of matches with 3 goals or more, both teams combined. “2.5” is not a possible score: the threshold is written that way so there can be no tie.
No goal conceded: The share of matches finished without conceding a single goal.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

This season — home for the home side, away for the visitors

Sporting CPvsFC Arouca

1.59xG for+124%0.71

0.92xG against↓ less is better+148%2.28

Based on 3 home matches / 3 away matches this season.

›Understanding these indicators

Sample: The sample changes from block to block: the most recent matches over two windows, the whole season, or only home and away fixtures. The same label therefore appears several times on this page without covering the same matches. At the top of each block, the title or subtitle says which; at the bottom, the “Sample” line gives the number of matches, team by team.
The gap, in percent: The relative gap between the two teams, in the colour of the one ahead. “+26%” means its figure is 26% higher than the opponent's. It is shown on averages only; percentages are compared by eye on their bar.
xG for: Expected goals: what the chances created were worth, regardless of what went in. A team scoring little with a high xG missed its chances, not its attacks.
xG against: Expected goals against: what the chances conceded were worth.

Expected in this match

1.59Sporting CP

2.30Total

0.71FC Arouca

League Context

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 49% BTTS · 2.78 goals per game, i.e. 1.39 per team

Balanced league

Sporting CPvs league avgFC Arouca

2.50+80%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.39↑ more is better1.33−4%

1.00−28%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.39↓ less is better0.83−40%

67.0%+18 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 48.9%33.0%−16 pts

5.17+19%CornersLeague avg 4.363.00−31%

2.33+8%CardsLeague avg 2.162.33+8%

Based on 18 teams for the league averages; 6 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Estimates & Standings

Where each team sits in the table, plus projected figures for this match.

Sporting CP#3

FC Arouca#5

2.34Expected goals

34%Over 2.5 goals

34%Both teams score

8.7Corners

4.3Cards

Head to head — 18 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

83%

11%

Based on 18 matches

avg goals/game3.17

Sporting CP · at home

7-2-0

9 matches · 27-6 goals

FC Arouca · away

0-2-7

9 matches · 6-27 goals

Last 10 meetings

24 Jan 2026awaySporting CP2-1FC Arouca

17 Aug 2025homeSporting CP6-0FC Arouca

15 Feb 2025homeSporting CP2-2FC Arouca

13 Sept 2024awaySporting CP3-0FC Arouca

10 Mar 2024awaySporting CP3-0FC Arouca

8 Oct 2023homeSporting CP2-1FC Arouca

16 Apr 2023homeSporting CP1-1FC Arouca

29 Oct 2022awaySporting CP0-1FC Arouca

5 Mar 2022homeSporting CP2-0FC Arouca

2 Oct 2021awaySporting CP2-1FC Arouca

Match Insights

Runs and counts for both teams, with commentary. That commentary sometimes looks ahead to the match: it is not our model's view.

Sporting CP

Coming into this game, Sporting CP has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Sporting CP has scored 13 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Sporting CP is in great form, and the home fans will be loving it. They have won the last 3 games that they have played at home.

Momentum is really building for Sporting CP as they have now gone 6 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.

Sporting CP is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against FC Arouca, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 13 goals in those 5 games.

In the last 5 matches for Sporting CP, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (67% of all matches) involving Sporting CP has seen BTTS landing.

FC Arouca

Coming into this game, FC Arouca has picked up 7 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. FC Arouca has scored 7 times in the last 5 fixtures.

Things have not been going that well in front of goal for FC Arouca recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?

Just 2 of the last 5 games for FC Arouca has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/6 games for FC Arouca this season.

Third-party source

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.