Rijeka vs Midtjylland — Conference League preview & stats

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Conference League Conference League·

Rijeka

Midtjylland

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

51%

Draw

18%

Away Win

31%

Both teams score48.4%

Over 2.5 goals49.7%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Rijeka held a 100% home winning record with a strong home xG of 2.50, reflecting their attacking advantage at Stadion HNK Rijeka. Midtjylland demonstrated a 60% away win rate and an away xG of 1.28, indicating effective performance on the road. Before the match, Rijeka averaged 2.00 points per game, while Midtjylland averaged 3.00, showing the visitors had slightly more momentum.

Goals

The combined xG for the match was approximately 3.58, indicating a relatively tight contest with limited scoring chances. Historically, about 80% of the goals in similar matches occurred in the first half, with the second half showing comparable activity. The teams' past encounters showed a low frequency of both teams scoring, with only around 27% of matches featuring goals from both sides.

Corners

Both teams averaged zero corners per game in this fixture, indicating a lack of set-piece opportunities from wide areas.

Clean Sheets

The defensive records suggested a balanced contest, with Midtjylland conceding an average xG against of 1.49 on their travels, while Rijeka’s strong home defense contributed to their perfect home win record. The match was characterized by a low number of goals and a strong defensive presence from both sides.

Rijeka maintained a perfect home winning record while Midtjylland showed solid away form in this Conference League match.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Rijeka1-4Midtjylland

Full time

44%Possession56%

0.99Match xG+109%2.07

9Shots+111%19

4Shots on target+100%8

2Corners+250%7

15Fouls↓ less is better+15%13

3Yellow cards↓ less is better+200%1

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

Match xG 0.99–2.07 · pre-match xG 1.79–1.79

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

Expected in this match

1.79Rijeka

3.58Total

1.79Midtjylland

Head to head — 1 match

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

100%

Based on 1 match

avg goals/game2.00

Last meeting

20 Aug 2026awayRijeka0-2Midtjylland

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.