Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps — Conference League preview & stats

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Conference League Conference League·

Larne

Lincoln Red Imps

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

57%

Draw

24%

Away Win

20%

Both teams score50.3%

Over 2.5 goals54.3%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Larne showed a stronger home performance with a higher xG at home compared to Lincoln Red Imps' lower away xG. Larne's defense also conceded fewer chances than Lincoln's attack created on the road. Previous encounters between the teams consistently resulted in fewer than three goals, indicating tight defensive play.

Goals

The matches between these teams averaged around two goals, with all prior meetings featuring under 2.5 goals. Notably, all previous games saw more than half a goal scored in the second half, indicating increased attacking activity after the break.

Corners

Both teams averaged zero corners per game in this fixture, indicating a lack of set-piece opportunities from wide areas during their encounters.

Clean Sheets

Larne's defense limited Lincoln's scoring chances effectively, as reflected in the low away xG for Lincoln and the overall low goal counts in their matches. This defensive solidity contributed to the pattern of low-scoring games between the sides.

Larne and Lincoln Red Imps met with a history of low-scoring, closely contested matches in the Conference League.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Larne0-3Lincoln Red Imps

Full time

11%Possession89%

1.04Match xG+90%1.98

7Shots+100%14

2Shots on target+300%8

8Corners+0%8

12Fouls↓ less is better+9%11

3Yellow cards↓ less is better+0%3

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

Match xG 1.04–1.98 · pre-match xG 1.67–1.18

Expected Goals (xG)

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

Expected in this match

1.67Larne

2.85Total

1.18Lincoln Red Imps

Head to head — 3 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

67%

33%

Based on 3 matches

avg goals/game3.00

Larne · at home

1-0-0

1 match · 3-1 goals

Lincoln Red Imps · away

0-0-1

1 match · 1-3 goals

Last 3 meetings

20 Aug 2026awayLarne2-0Lincoln Red Imps

29 Aug 2024homeLarne3-1Lincoln Red Imps

22 Aug 2024awayLarne1-2Lincoln Red Imps

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.