Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal — Champions League preview & stats

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Champions League Champions League·

Borussia Dortmund

Villarreal

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

75%

Draw

14%

Away Win

11%

Both teams score64.7%

Over 2.5 goals85.0%

Match analysis

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

Borussia Dortmund showed a home xG of 1.66 and conceded an xG of 1.51, reflecting a stronger attacking presence at Signal Iduna Park but a defense that was not fully dominant. Their home win rate stood at 33%. Villarreal, playing away, recorded an xG of 1.47 and conceded an xG of 1.36, with a 25% away win rate and a 50% rate of away losses.

Goals

The match featured multiple goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams having realistic chances to score. Dortmund’s home pressure translated into several attacking chances, while Villarreal posed a credible counter-attacking threat. The combined xG indicated a moderately high number of goals during the game.

Corners

Both teams averaged zero corners per game in this context, indicating that set-piece opportunities from corners were not a significant factor in this match.

Clean Sheets

Neither side maintained a clean sheet, as both teams scored during the game, consistent with the observed xG and attacking dynamics.

Borussia Dortmund hosted Villarreal in a Champions League group stage match with balanced attacking and defensive metrics.

Match report

The match record, worth comparing with what was expected above. The xG here is an estimate, not a count.

Borussia Dortmund3-2Villarreal

Full time

52%Possession48%

2.04Match xG+44%1.42

18Shots+38%13

6Shots on target+0%6

9Corners+29%7

13Fouls↓ less is better+63%8

1Yellow cards↓ less is better+200%3

xG: a third-party estimate, not a count.

Head to head — 3 matches

The direct record between these two teams. Often few matches — the count is shown so you know what it is worth.

33%

Based on 3 matches

avg goals/game3.33

Borussia Dortmund · at home

1-1-1

3 matches · 6-4 goals

Villarreal · away

1-1-1

3 matches · 4-6 goals

Last 3 meetings

25 Nov 2025homeBorussia Dortmund4-0Villarreal

6 Aug 2024homeBorussia Dortmund2-2Villarreal

22 Jul 2022homeBorussia Dortmund0-2Villarreal

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.