NEC vs Levski Sofia — Europa League preview & stats

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Europa League Europa League·

NEC

Levski Sofia

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Both teams score43.0%

Over 2.5 goals37.7%

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

NEC played at home with a moderate attacking strength indicated by a home xG of just under two, while Levski Sofia showed strong away form with a 60% win rate on the road. Both teams had similar season xG figures, reflecting a balanced contest rather than a high-scoring game. Historically, their combined matches averaged just over two goals per game, reflecting a moderate scoring tempo.

Goals

The teams consistently scored at least one goal in their encounters, with a 100% rate of over 0.5 goals. The frequency of matches with more than two and a half goals was about even, indicating a moderate occurrence of multiple goals. Both sides had balanced xG profiles, and Levski’s effective counterattacks contributed to goal-scoring opportunities on both ends.

Corners

The match featured a notable difference in corner averages, with NEC averaging one corner per game and Levski Sofia averaging five. Their meetings typically saw around six corners per game, pointing to a moderate number rather than a high volume of set-piece opportunities. NEC’s home pressing was associated with a busier first half in terms of corners.

Clean Sheets

Neither team held a significant defensive advantage, with NEC’s home defense rated as neutral to moderate. The balanced attacking and defensive metrics corresponded with clean sheets being rare, as both teams created chances and scored in their recent matches.

NEC and Levski Sofia faced each other in a balanced Europa League match at Goffertstadion.

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

Expected in this match

1.11NEC

2.28Total

1.17Levski Sofia

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 41% BTTS · 2.65 goals per game, i.e. 1.18 per team

Balanced league

NECvs league avgLevski Sofia

0.00−100%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.18↑ more is better0.00−100%

5.00+240%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.47↓ less is better1.00−32%

0.0%−41 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 40.6%0.0%−41 pts

Based on 76 teams for the league averages; 1 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.