AZ vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Europa League preview & stats

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Europa League Europa League·

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Win Probabilities

The chances our model gives each outcome. This is our estimate, not the market's.

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Both teams score46.0%

Over 2.5 goals40.8%

Context for the match, written from third-party data. Enough to situate the fixture before getting into the numbers.

Form & Context

AZ demonstrated a strong home performance with an xG significantly above their season average, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva showed a moderate away xG but conceded nearly two xG on the road, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Goals

The match featured a low-scoring pattern consistent with historical data for this fixture, with total goals remaining under common thresholds and an overall xG close to three, reflecting a contest decided by one or two goals.

Corners

The game saw a combined average of around eleven corners, aligning with the teams' tendencies, as AZ typically generated a higher number of corners when controlling the match, contributing to a relatively high corner count.

Clean Sheets

Defensive solidity was evident, particularly from AZ, who conceded fewer chances at home, with both teams not scoring in some matches and the match maintaining a low goal count.

AZ hosted Hapoel Be'er Sheva in a Europa League group stage match at the AFAS Stadion.

Chances created, regardless of what they returned. A team can win while scoring less than it should have.

Expected in this match

1.19AZ

2.89Total

1.70Hapoel Be'er Sheva

The same number does not mean the same thing in every league. Each team is placed against its own.

League averages: 41% BTTS · 2.65 goals per game, i.e. 1.18 per team

Balanced league

AZvs league avgHapoel Be'er Sheva

0.00−100%Attack (goals for)League avg 1.18↑ more is better0.00−100%

1.00−32%Defence (goals against)League avg 1.47↓ less is better0.00−100%

0.0%−41 ptsBoth teams scoreLeague avg 40.6%0.0%−41 pts

Based on 76 teams for the league averages; 1 matches played by each of the two teams.

›Understanding this block

What is compared: Each team's profile over the whole season — home and away combined — against its own league's average. This is the only section of the page where both teams are read on the same basis; elsewhere the numbers come from the home or away split.
Why two units: A goal average has no scale of its own: “1.59 goals” says nothing until you know what the league does, so the gap is given in relative terms (“+23%”). A percentage already has one: the gap between 73% and 58% is given in points (“+15 pts”), never in relative terms — that would be a percentage of a percentage.
What the sign means: A “+” only means “above the league average”. It is not always favourable: above on goals scored is an asset, above on goals conceded is not. Those two rows carry the matching note. The others — corners, cards, both teams to score — describe a style of play, not a quality: they carry none.
The reference: Under each label, “League avg” is the competition's average per team — the second figure in the block header. The first counts the goals of both teams together: that is why it is roughly twice as large.
The colours: Cyan is the home team, amber the away team — the two names at the top of the block already carry those tints. They say nothing about whether a number is good.

Some of the data and text on this page comes from a third-party source, not from our model. Not our probabilities, and not a result prediction.

Statistical analysis only. Not financial advice. Predictions, not guarantees. Gamble responsibly — 18+ only.